After Week 13 (I believe it was Week 13) I switched over to making all plays either 3 units or 5 units.  I was having a ton of success hitting a high percent (currently over 60%) but my low unit plays were doing better than my high unit plays.  Because of that I switched to a consistent almost flat betting each play.

Since the switch me and my clients have enjoyed some success and I am sticking with it for the rest of the season.

I will no longer be giving out any free picks for the 2011 season.  I highly suggest you become a client and join us with our big plays as we look to continue our success into Week 17 and the postseason.

Click here to become a client…

1 STAR PICK – Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals – CARDINALS +5 (-110)
(Note: I’m risking 1.10 units to win 1 unit)

Dallas has won 4 straight games, including a last second 20-19 win on Thanksgiving against the Dolphins, to move their record to 7-4 on the season. The Cowboys are just 2-3 on the road this season, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall. Arizona will enjoy the return of Kevin Kolb under center this week, although they managed to win 3 of their last 4 games (home and away against St Louis and @Phialdelphia). The Cardinals are just 4-7 on the season, but a respectable 2-2 at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take note that the Cowboys are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3.5-10, and 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite overall. Dallas is also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record, and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in December. Arizona has fared well as a big medium sized home underdog, going 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10. The Cowboys could have easily lost their last two games (an overtime win and last second field goal win), while the Cardinals are playing good football right now. Too many points to be giving the Cardinals at home against a team that struggles as a favorite. I’ll take the Cardinals getting 5 points at home.

Good Luck with your Week 13 betting!

This week I have one play for “non-clients” as the other 4 are only being sent to clients.

1 STAR PICK – Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons – FALCONS -9.5 (-104)
(Note: I’m risking 1.04 units to win 1 unit)

Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5 games and they are now 2-8 on the season. The Vikings are 4-5-1 ATS, but are just 1-4 on the road this season. On the road they’ve suffered losses of 38, 29, 5, and 7. The two double digit losses came to NFC teams that the Falcons can be compared to (Packers and Bears), while the smaller margin losses came to two average teams in Kansas City and San Diego. In their last three games the Vikings are averaging 31 points against, and just 17.3 for. The Falcons enter this game 6-4 on the season and 3-2 at home. High expectations on this team to start the season has them just 4-6 ATS this season. They enter this week’s game winning 4 of their last 5 games, with their only loss coming in overtime at home vs the Saints. Over their last three the Falcons have averaged 25.7 points per game and are allowing an average of just 16.7 against. Vikings rookie QB Christian Ponder needs all the help he can get, but unfortunately for this Minnesota team they will be without their star running back Adrian Peterson who is out with an ankle injury. Ponder has been OK this season, but has a QB rating of just 67.3 as he has thrown just 5 TDs to his 6 INTs. The Falcons run defense ranks 2nd in the NFL, which should force Ponder to throw the ball more than the Vikings would like. Overall the Falcons rank 12th in the NFL in yards per game offensively at 396 and they should be able to put up points against the Vikings defense who is ranked 30th in the NFL giving up 360 yards against per game. Note that the Vikings are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs a team with a winning record, 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games, and just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10. On the other hand the Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a losing record, and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as favorite of 3.5-10. I have the Falcons cruising to a victory and covering the spread against the Peterson-less Vikings.

Lets hit another free play WINNER!

Cheers,
Kevin

I’ve locked in 6 picks this week, and 4 of them are only being sent to clients only – click here to become a client.

1 Star FREE Picks for Week 11:

1 STAR PICK – Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins – DOLPHINS -2 (-110)
(Note: I’m risking 1.10 units to win 1 unit)

After winning two straight games the Dolphins have improved to 2-7 on the year, which has gotten some of their players talking about the playoffs still being in reach.  Yeah that is pretty far fetched, but it shows that this Miami team is gaining some confidence and isn’t writing off this season just yet.  They went into KC and won 31-3, and then returned home for a 20-9 win against the Redskins.  Buffalo has lost two straight and 3 of their last 4 games to fall down to 5-4 on the season.  They are just 1-3 on the road, with their only road win also coming in Kansas City.  Losses have come against Cincinnati, New York Giants, and Dallas.  Their 44-7 loss to the Cowboys last week following an embarrassing 27-11 home loss to the Jets might have hurt the Bills confidence.  To make things worse for the Bills they are facing a lot of injury problems.  Buffalo is averaging just 13.7 points per game in their last 3, while giving up 23.7 points against.  The Dolphins are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last 3, and are giving up just 10.7 in that span.  Note that the Bills are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points, and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.  Given where these two teams are at right now the Dolphins should be 3.5 or 4 point favorites.  I’ll happily take Miami -2 here for a unit.

1 STAR PICK – Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons – TITANS +7 (-130)
(Note: I’m risking 1.30 units to win 1 unit)

+7 is the key number in this one, available at a few sportsbooks such as Bodog.  Tennessee sits 5-4, good for second in the AFC South, and with Matt Schaub’s injury the Titans suddenly have a lot more to play for, as they know the AFC South division title is still up for grabs.  I somewhat wrote the Titans off last week taking Carolina, as the Titans had lost three of four previously, but they came out in a big way beating Carolina on the road 30-3 as 3.5 point underdogs.  The Falcons are 5-4 as well, and just 2-2 at home this season.  They’ve beaten Philadelphia and Carolina at home, but have lost to Green Bay and New Orleans last week.  Tennessee’s defense has been pretty solid, allowing just 17.5 points against per game on the road, and 12.3 points against in their last 3 games.  Over their last 3 games the Titans have scored 24.7 points per game.  Take note that the Titans are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog 3.5-10 points.  The Falcons are just 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 home games vs a team with a winning road record.  Tennessee has won 18 of their last 20 games vs NFC opponents, and not that you can look much into h2h stats for AFC vs NFC games, but the Titans have beaten Atlanta in 5 straight meetings.  The Titans will keep this one competitive and I like them getting a touchdown here.  The play is Titans +7.

In Week 10 I have 5 picks total.

• 3 “big plays” for clients only (1 5 Star pick and 2 3 Star picks)
• one free 1 star pick which I will post here
• and another 1 star pick on the Monday Night’er which is for clients only

If you want access to my NFL clients only picks you can click here.

FREE 1 Star NFL picks for Week 10:

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers – 49ERS -3.5 (-101)

(Note: I’m risking 1.01 units to win 1 unit)

The Giants come into this one with a 6-2 record after winning their last 3 games, which includes a win last week in New England against the Patriots as 9 point underdogs.  The only other win against a team with a winning record for the Giants has been against the Buffalo Bills.  Their losses have come against Seattle and Washington.  The 49ers enter this game with a 7-1 record.  Their lone loss was an OT loss against the Cowboys (a game which they maybe should have won).  The 49ers have beaten some good teams including Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Detroit.   The 49ers are first in the league allowing just 14.8 points against per game this season, while the Giants are 20th in that category allowing 23 points against per game.  The 49ers are outscoring opponents roughly 31-14 at home this year.  The Giants are just 4-3-1 ATS, while the 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS.  Note that San Fran has the top rushing defense in the league, and with only Brandon Jacobs available Sunday I can’t see New York doing much on the ground.  On the other hand Frank Gore has rushed for five straight 100 yard games and New York’s 24th ranked defense will struggle keeping him under wraps.  Take note that the Giants are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  Coming off an emotional win in New England last weekend I think it will be hard for the Giants to bring the same energy on Sunday, facing a much tougher 49ers defense.  I have San Francisco winning this game, and covering the spread in doing so.  49ers by 4 points or more.

Good Luck this week and remember Click Here if you want my 4 clients only picks.

Lions -2.5 (-111) – 3 Star - WINNER
Vikings/Panthers Over 47.5 (-107) – 3 Star - LOSS
Texans -9.5 (-106) – 3 Star - WINNER
Jags/Texans Under 40.5 (-102) – 1 Star – WINNER
Bills -6 (-106) – 1 Star – WINNER

The Panthers missed a 31 yard field goal at the end of the game that would of forced overtime and the OVER for a perfect 5-0 week.

No complaints though… great week and here is our updated record:

1 Star (Free) Picks Record = 17-8-1
3 Star (Big Play) Picks Record = 9-6
5 Star (Big Play) Picks Record = 0-2-1
Click here for access to my Big Plays..
Overall Units /- = +3.64

As you can see I am 26-16-2 overall against the spread (hitting 61.9% against the spread). Our only downfall has been the 5 Star picks, which could easily be 1-2 or even 2-1. I am confident my highest rated plays will start hitting and we can turn this into a BIG season. Lets keep at it.

I have 4 Clients Only plays this week (Two 5 Stars, One 3 Star, and a 1 Star). I worked extremely hard on these picks and am confident in another great week!

I highly suggest you join us (click here to sign up)

5 STAR PICK – **Clients Only** Click here to become a client
[Note: I'm risking 6.50 units to win 5 units]

5 STAR PICK – **Clients Only** Click here to become a client
[Note: I'm risking 5.35 units to win 5 units]

1 STAR PICK – **Clients Only** Click here to become a client
[Note: I'm risking 1.11 units to win 1 unit]

3 STAR PICK - **Clients Only** Click here to become a client
[Note: I'm risking 3.36 units to win 3 units]

***NOTE: Each of these plays have detailed write ups, which will be sent to you along with the plays instantly when you sign up.***

——-

FREE PICKS:

1 STAR PICK – Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers – STEELERS -3 (-114)
[Note: I'm risking 1.14 units to win 1 unit]

*Note: -3 is key and is available at most sportsbooks. Bookmaker (US allowed) has -3 (-120) still*

These two teams met in Baltimore Week 1 with the Ravens thumping the Steelers 35-7.  Since that embarrassing loss the Steelers have gone on to win 5 of 6 games including a perfect 4-0 home record.  Pittsburgh’s biggest win of the season came last Sunday against the Patriots, when they won 25-17 as 3 point underdogs.  Baltimore (5-2) hasn’t look good in their past two games – a 30-27 come from behind win against the Cardinals at home, and a 12-7 loss on Monday Night football in Week 7 as 10 point favorites.  Joe Flacco has completed just 53.8% of his passes for only 8 touchdowns and 6 INTs this season – giving him a 75.4 QB Rating.  Ben Roethlisberger has been the much better QB completing 64.4% of hiss passes for 14 touchdowns and 7 INTs for a QB rating of 95.7.  Note that the Ravens are averaging just 19 points per game on the road, while the Steelers are averaging 26 points per game at home and just 11.8 points against at Heinz Field.  Pittsburgh is battling some linebacker injuries, but James Harrison looks like he could be ready Sunday.  Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs AFC North division rivalries.  The Ravens are just 2-5-1 ATS in these two teams last 8 meetings.  Over the past few weeks the Steelers have looked like the much better team, and playing at Heinz Field I expect them to get a bit of revenge from their Week 1 loss.  Steelers win and cover.

1 STAR PICK – San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins – UNDER 37.5 (-103)
[Note: I'm risking 1.03 units to win 1 unit]

San Francisco has reeled off 5 straight wins, covering the spread in all 5, which includes 3 straight up wins as underdogs.  On the other hand the Washington Redskins have lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 games.  The Redskins have been dealing with injuries, including Santana Moss and Tim Hightower who will both be out for this weeks game.  Missing those two key offensive players didn’t go well for Washington as they were shutout in a 23-0 loss in Toronto last week (vs Buffalo).  The Redskins are averaging just 16.6 points per game this season, but are playing good defense allowing just 19.9 points against per game.   The 49ers have been the best in the NFL in points against per game with a league low 15.3.  While the 49ers have done well averaging 26.7 points per game this season, they are averaging a lower 20.7 points per game on the road, and I expect that to fall around that number or lower this weekend against a good Washington defense.  Washington has the 12th ranked passing defense, allowing 223 yards against through the air per game. Also note that the 49ers have the 1st ranked rush defense, giving up just 73.4 yards per game on the ground.  The 49ers should have no problem keeping the Washington run game contained, and John Beck just doesn’t have the weapons to get it done through the air.  Take note that the UNDER is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10 points.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the Redskins last 6 games overall, 7-0 in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record, and 9-3 in their last 12 games as an underdog.  The UNDER is also 30-12-1 in their Redskins last 43 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 and 10-4 in their last 14 games as home underdog of 3.5-10.  This should be one of the lower scoring games of the week.  Take the UNDER.

——–

Lines found from line shopping a variety of sportsbooks:

Pinnacle (non US)
SportsInteraction (non US)
Bodog (US accepted)
Bookmaker (US accepted)
5Dimes (US accepted)
BetOnline (US accepted – easy credit card deposits)

Time to have a good week this week… I have 5 plays and wouldn’t settle for anything less than 4-1.

I have three Big Plays going and two regular free 1 star picks.  If you want access to my Big Plays (higher rated plays) you must sign up here.

1 Star Free NFL Picks:

1 STAR PICK – Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills (played in Toronto) – BILLS -6 (-106)
[Note: I'm risking 1.06 units to win 1 unit]

After getting off to a quick 3-1 start the Redskins have dropped two in a row.  The first a 7 point home loss to a struggling Eagles team, and then a 13 point loss in Carolina with John Beck under center for the first time.  If the losses didn’t hurt this team enough, they will now be without Santana Moss for a few week, RB Tim Hightower, and a number of others are listed as questionable for this week’s game in Toronto.  The Bills have dropped two of their last three games by a field goal, but are still 4-2 on the season.  Their impressive wins have come against Philadelphia, New England, Oakland and a 34 point victory over Kansas City.  The Redskins are allowing almost 5 yards per carry against in their last two starts which could cause troubles with Fred jackson averaging 5.7 yards per carry.  While the Redskins are averaging just 19.3 points against they are also averaging 19.3 points for, and have allowed 53 points against in their last two games.  Buffalo is scoring 31.3 points per game on average.  Bills win by a touchdown or more.

1 STAR PICK – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – UNDER 40.5 (-102)
[Note: I'm risking 1.02 units to win 1 unit]

The Jaguars pulled off a huge upset on Monday night with their 12-7 win over the Ravens who were 10 point favorites, but are still only 2-5 on the season.  The Jacksonville defense has been good, holding opponents to just under 20 points per game, but their offense led by rookie Blaine Gabbert is averaging just 12 points per game and 8.7 points per game on the road.  The Jaguars defense has allowed them to keep a lot of games respectable and are ranked 6th allowing just under 300 yards against per game.  The Houston Texans aren’t far behind in defense, allowing 303 yards against per game and a lower 18.7 points against per game.  At home opponents are scoring just 14 points against this Texans team, and that might cause troubles for the Jaguars.  Blaine Gabbert seems to be a little bit more comfortable under center, but is still completing less than 50% of his passes, and has a QB rating of 69.4.  Note that Houston offensive threat Andre Johnson is out.  I can’t see this game reaching the 40 point mark – take the UNDER.

**My Big Plays have more in depth write ups and are available to clients only – click here to sign up**

We aren’t complaining about a profiting week though.  This week is going to be a good one.  I have 6 picks… which includes 3 BIG PLAYS. 1 5 Star pick and 2 3 star picks.  If you haven’t already signed up I highly suggest you join us – click here to sign up for my Big Plays.

My current NFL picks record this season:

1 Star (Free) Picks Record = 12-8-1
3 Star (Big Play) Picks Record = 6-4
5 Star (Big Play) Picks Record = 0-1-1

My 1 Star picks are below, and my Big Plays are emailed out to clients (and will be sent instantly if you are a new sign up)…

NFL Week 7 “1 Star” Picks:

These are my smallest rated plays… click here to get my big plays

**My write ups for my 1 Star picks are significantly less detailed than my higher rated plays**

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers – PANTHERS -2.5 (-113)

(Note: I’m risking 1.13 units to win 1 unit)

As good as the Redskins defense has been, they have just as many trouble scoring.  The Redskins came off a bye week to host the Philadelphia Eagles, and managed just one touchdown which came with under 3 minutes to go in the ball game.  Grossman threw for 4 interceptions in that game, and the Redskins have decided to go with John Beck under center this week.  Beck hasn’t started a regular season game since 2007 where he went 0-4 with the Dolphins in his rookie season.  The Panthers offense ranks 6th in total yards (428 per game) and they are averaging 22.2 points per game this season.  Although the Panthers are just 1-5, they have kept games close going 4-2 ATS.  The Panthers covered the spread against the Packers, Bears, and New Orleans.  Although the Redskins had an impressive win against the Giants in the season opener, their other two wins have come against Arizona and St Louis.  Washington is just 3-9-7 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  As long as the Panthers can establish a running game like they have been in recent weeks, I like Cam Newton to lead this team to their second home win of the season.

Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns – BROWNS -2.5 (-117)

(Note: I’m risking 1.17 units to win 1 unit)

Both the Seahawks and Browns come into this one with a 2-3 record.  The Seahawks enjoyed a bye last week after beating the Giants in New York the week prior, while the Browns lost by 7 in Oakland after their bye week.  Seattle has beaten Arizona and New York, and has losses to San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Atlanta.  The Browns have beaten Indianapolis and Miami, and has losses to Cincinnati, Tennessee and Oakland.  Seahawks QB Tavaris Jackson is out with a pectoral injury, and we will see Charlie Whitehurst under center for the Seahawks. The 29 year old played after Jackson was injured and went 11 for 19 for 149 yards.  In 2010 Whitehurst completed 57.6% of his passes with 2 TDs and 3 INTs for a 65.5 QB Rating.  Colt McCoy has been OK for the Browns, throwing for 8 TDs and just 3 INTs this season, but will need to better in order to lead this Browns team to some more victories.  The Browns will be without CB Joe Haden this week, but their defense has been pretty solid this year – allowing just 321 yards against per game (good for 7th in the NFL).  The Seahawks are just 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games, and I don’t think Charlie Whitehurst can out play Colt McCoy on the road Sunday.  Take the Browns -2.5 as they get things done by a Field Goal or more.

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints – SAINTS -13.5 (-110)

(Note: I’m risking 1.10 units to win 1 unit)

A rematch of Super Bowl 44 Sunday Night, but this time the Saints are the favorites.  The Peyton Manning-less Colts are winless (0-6) oin the season, while the Saints led by Drew Brees are 4-2.  Curtis Painter has done a good job since taking over, completing 55% of his passes for 5 TDs, just 1 INT and a 93 QB Rating, but the Colts defense has provided much help.  Indianapolis is averaging 27.2 points against per game this season, and should have a lot of troubles against the Saints who are average 29.5 points per game and 35 points per game at home.  The Saints had won 4 straight since an opening night loss to the Packers, before losing 26-20 last Sunday in Tampa Bay.  Note that the Saints are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss.  Drew Brees is like Tom Brady, taking losses personally and I see a big offensive performance coming from him Sunday Night against a struggling Colts defense.  The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The loss of Sean Payton on the sideline may affect the team a little bit, but he will still be calling the plays from up top, and I don’t see it affecting the play of this Saints team at home.  The Colts have only faced one high powered offense this season in the Houston Texans, and were beat badly in a 34-7 loss.  Expect a similar outcome Sunday Night as the Saints rebound from their Week 6 loss in big way on prime time.

Although we profited 1.00 unit, most of my “Big Play” clients enjoyed a 5 STAR winner for 6 units of profit.  I was on the PATRIOTS -9 for my 5 Star play, but soon after releasing the line dropped to 7.5 in most places.  I made sure I noted the line drop in my write up so that the clients could get a better number than me… considering the number of thank you emails I received after the weekend for that play I would guess that more than half of the clients got a WIN instead of the push for that play.  Although I personally got a “push”, I am happy for my clients picking up some extra money!

Other than that we split our 3 Star picks and went 3-1 with the Free 1 Star picks I released here at the blog.

For this NFL Week 6 I have 3 “CLIENTS ONLY” picks going.  If you want to get them via email you can click here to sign up and you will be sent the picks instantly.

1 Star Week 6 NFL Picks:

I’ve included small write ups for my 1 Star picks… my Big Plays have more in depth write ups.

1 STAR PICK – San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions – 49ERS +5 (-110)
[Note: I'm risking 1.10 units to win 1 unit]

The 49ers come into this game 4-1 and 4-0-1 ATS.  They are coming off of a huge confident boosting 48-3 victory as just 2.5 point favorites, which follow victories in Philadelphia as 9.5 point dogs in Week 4 and Cincinnati in Week 3.  The Lions are looking like an NFC playoff team off to an amazing 5-0 start, but are in a let down spot here on a short week.  Coming off a big 24-13 Monday Night football win at home the Lions face a tough 49ers team.  The Lions made a lot of mistakes on Monday, and won’t have an easy time against this 49ers defense who averages just 15.6 points against per game.  5 points is too many for the Lions in this one, I’m on the 49ers.

1 STAR PICK – Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants – OVER 50.5 POINTS (-108)
[Note: I'm risking 1.08 units to win 1 unit]

These two teams are in the top half of the league in a lot of offensive categories, including points per game. The Bills sit 3rd in the league at 32.8 points per game while the Giants are 9th in the league with 25.4 points per game.  Both teams are averaging ove 350 yards of offense per game on the season.   With that said, both defenses have had their troubles.  The Giants are allowing 24.6 points against per game, and the Bills are allowing 24 points against.  Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eli Manning have both looked solid thus far – with Manning sporting a 102.3 QB rating, and Fitzpatrick with a 96.4 QB rating.  Take note that the OVER is 6-0 in the Bills last 6 games overall, and 4-1 in their last 5 as a road underdog.  The OVER is also 5-1-1 in the Giants last 5 home games, and 7-1 in their last 8 as a small favorite of 0.5-3.0.  The offenses keep rolling in a shootout in New York – take the OVER.

1 STAR PICK – Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants – GIANTS -3 (-120)
[Note: I'm risking 1.20 units to win 1 unit]

A lot of action is coming in on the Bills +3 after they beat the Eagles last week (I game where I had the BILLS +3), but I am going on the opposite here.  These two teams match up fairly evenly, and this will no doubt be a good match up.  The Bills haven’t been tested on the road, beating a bad Chiefs team and then losing to the Bengals by a field goal.  Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.  The Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home, as head coach Tom Coughlin is 7-3 ATS in his last 10 as a favorite after losing straight up as a favorite.  I’m not a fan of this Giants team after they knocked me out of my fantasy pool last week, but I fully expect a big bounce back game from New York.  That and home field advantage should have the Giants favored by a few more, and I will take the Giants only laying a field goal.

**I Highly Recommend  Clicking Here and Signing Up For My Big Plays**

Here is a picture of my new office. The picture doesn’t do justice (taken from my iPhone)… but I have my 27" iMac with dual monitor set up, and then a 47" LED Sharp Aquos Quattron mounted on the wall. Great setup for doing my handicapping daily.

I take my job seriously. Click here to sign up for my Big NFL Plays (sent instantly).

4-0 over the weekend, which included 2 “Big Play” WINNERS.  I also posted on the Facebook page my COLTS +10.5 lean for the Monday Night’er as I know a lot of people like at least putting some money down on the prime time game – that was a fairly easy winner too.

Congrats to all those following the plays last week, as we bounce back from a rough Week 3.  Remember this NFL season is a long one, we will have our down weeks, but I fully expect to see a lot of weeks like we had last weekend and in the end a lot of profits when February rolls around

Right now I am really in the zone with all three of my sports going, as NHL just started up (NHL, MLB and NFL).  This week we have a 7 NFL picks going, including 3 Big Plays, so I am only going to dedicate my time to doing full write ups on my picks for the Big Plays.  Click here if you’d like to sign up for my Big Plays for the entire season…

1 Star NFL Betting Picks for Week 5

**Full write ups only for Big Plays this week – I will post a few quick sentences about each 1 star pick**

1 STAR PICK – New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers – PANTHERS +7 (-115)
[Note: I'm risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit]

Saints are 2-9 Against the Spread (ATS) in their last 9 vs a team with a losing record, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Panthers are 3-1 ATS this season, and 2-0 ATS at home (1-1 straight up).  New Orleans wins this one, but Cam Newton keeps up the offensive output and keeps it within a touchdown.

1 STAR PICK – Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers – TITANS +3.5 (-117)
[Note: I'm risking 1.17 units to win 1 unit]

The Steelers are having big time o-line problems, Roethlisberger will be playing injured, and we aren’t sure if Mendenhall will play.  They might be OK if their defense were being themselves, but Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t looked good in 3 of their 4 games (exception Seattle).  Matt Hasselbeck is playing good with his team and is sporting a 104.7 QB Rating.  Titans beat Ravens as 5.5 point underdogs.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in these two teams last 8 meetings.  Take the 3.5 points.

1 STAR PICK – Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons – PACKERS -5.5 (-107)
[Note: I'm risking 1.07 units to win 1 unit]

Who can slow down Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense?  Not the Falcons who have been giving up 26.2 points against per game in the first four weeks of the season.  This is becoming a good NFC rivalry, with each team winning on the road last season.  The Packers beat Atlanta 48-21 in the revenge postseason game, and I still don’t think they’ve put the 20-17 loss to Atlanta last year behind them.  Green Bay is 3-1 ATS this season, with the only L being a backdoor cover from Carolina.  Falcons are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.

1 STAR MNF PICK – Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions – LIONS -5 (-106)
[Note: I'm risking 1.06 units to win 1 unit]

The 4-0 Lions fought back for a win thanks to some Tony Romo mistakes in Dallas last weekend and are feeling good about themselves.  They return home, where they are 1-0 on the season beating the Chiefs 48-3 in Week 2.  The Lions have now covered in 4 straight home games, and I think they will be a very tough team to beat in Detroit this season.  The Bears used an INT returned for a TD and a punt returned for a TD to get by the Panthers last week, as they allowed the Panthers offense to amass 543 yards.  The Bears are 1-3 ATS this year, and are 0-1 on the road losing 30-13 to the Saints in Week 2.  These Lions are one of the top NFC teams, while the Bears are middle of the pack… home field plays a big role in this Monday Night Lions win and cover.