2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys – OVER 55 POINTS (-102)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
I’m coming right back on a Bronco’s OVER this week as last week the Broncos and Eagles soared OVER the total that closed at 57.5 with a Denver 52-20 victory. Right now Peyton Manning has the best targets he’s ever had in his career, along with a solid running game – and it’s showing. Through 4 games the Broncos are averaging 483 yards per game and 44.8 points per game (both 1st in the NFL). Their defense, on the other hand, hasn’t been anything special giving up 20+ points in each of their games and ranking 24th in the NFL. The Cowboys are 19th in the NFL offensively in yards gained per game, but they’ve converted drives into points ranking 10th with 26 ppg. QB Tony Romo has been great this year with a 72.4% completion rate with 1017 yards, 8 TDs, just 1 INT, and a 105.1 QB Rating – and he has played his best football at home. In two home games the Cowboys have put up 36 and 31 points. Although a 55 point total looks high for the NFL, when you have Manning and the Broncos averaging 44.8 points per game it looks like great value. A 35-28 type game puts this over a touchdown over the total, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the total in the 60s. Take the OVER.